Subject:
35 YEARS LEFT?
Organization: Eugene Free community
Network/Oregon Public Networking
Date: Mon, 2 Jan 1995 15:42:08
GMT
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HOW CLOSE TO PRACTICAL LIMITS?
"There is accumulating evidence that
humanity my soon have to
confront the real carrying capacity
constraints. For example, nearly
40% of terrestrial net primary
productivity (photosynthesis) is
already being used
("appropriated") by humans, one species among
millions, and this fraction is steadily
increasing (Vitousek et al.
1986).
If we take this percentage as an index of the human carrying
capacity of the earth and assume that a
growing economy could come to
appropriate 80% of photosynthetic
production before destroying the
functional integrity of the ecosphere,
the earth will effectively go
from half to completely full within the
next doubling period --
currently about 35 years (Daly 1991).
"The significance of this
unprecedented convergence of economic scale
with that of the ecosphere is not
generally appreciated in the
current debate on sustainable
development. Because the human impact
on critical functions of the ecosphere is
not uniform "effective
fullness" may actually occur may
actually occur well before the next
doubling of human activity. (Liebig's law reminds us that is takes
only a single critical limiting factor to
constrain the entire
system.)
Indeed, data presented in this chapter suggests that
long-term human carrying capacity may already
have been at less than
the present 40% preemption of
photosynthesis. If so, even current
consumption (throughput) cannot be
sustained indefinitely, and
further material growth can be purchased
only with accelerated
depletion of remaining natural capital
stocks.
"This conundrum can be illustrated
another way by extrapolation from
our ecological footprint data. If the entire world population of 5.6
billion were to use productive land at
the rate of our
Vancouver/Lower Fraser Valley example,
the total requirement would be
28.5 billion ha. In fact, the total land area of Earth is only
just
over 13 billion ha, of which only 8.8
billion ha is productive
cropland, pasture, or forest. The immediate implications are
two-fold:
first, as already stressed, the citizens of wealthy
industrial countries unconsciously
appropriate far more than their
share of global carrying capacity; second, we would require an
additional "two Earths,"
assuming present technology and efficiency
levels, to provide for the present world
population at Canadian's
ecological standard of living. In short, there may simply not be
enough natural capital around to satisfy
current development
assumptions. The difference between the anticipated ecological
footprint of the human enterprise and the
available land/natural
capital base is a measure
"sustainability gap" confronting
humankind." [p. 383]
A CAUTIONARY NOTE
"We admittedly make no allowance for
potentially large efficiency
gains or technological advances. Even at carrying capacity, further
economic growth is possible (but not
necessarily desirable) if
resource consumption and waste production
continue to decline per
unit GDP (Jacobs 1991). We should not, however, rely exclusively on
this conventional rationale. New technologies require decades to
achieve the market penetration needed to
significantly influence
negative ecological trends. Moreover,there is no assurance that
savings will not simply be directed into
alternative forms of
consumption. Efficiency improvements may actually increase
rather
than decrease resource consumption
(Saunders 1992). We are already
the limit in a world of rising material
expectations in which the
human population is increasing by 94
million people per year. The
minimal food-land requirements alone each
year for this number of new
people is 18,800,000 ha (at 5 people/ha,
the current average
productivity of world agriculture) -- the
equivalent of all cropland
in France." [p. 386]
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LIMITS TO GROWTH: THE CORNUCOPIA SCAM
NOTE: The following selections are from an
article by Sandy Irvine
entitled "The Cornucopia Scam:
Contradictions of Sustainable
Development, Part 2: Misconceptions About
Fundamental Causes."
(Wild Earth, Winter 1994/95, pp. 72-82. All
emphasis in
original.)
The Cornucopia Scam
by Sandy Irvine
POPULATION (p. 72)
"Every year, human numbers increase
globally by some 95 million.
Even in India's frequently praised state of Kerala where there has
been genuine social progress and the growth
rate of the state's
population has been cut to 1.7%, the
population will still double
on that basis in just 47 years. Contrary to
popular perception
about the leveling off of population growth
in rich countries, on
present trends America's population will double to around 520
million in only 63 years.
"Yet there is generally a deafening
silence on the issue of
population growth and bitter criticism of
those few who do raise
the issue.
None of the major environmental lobbies, for example,
has produced any substantial literature or
policy on the matter.
"Population growth exacerbates every
environment and most social
problems.
Kenya's population increases by over 1600 people every
day, thereby intensifying pressure on the
land, eating up space
for surviving wildlife, overwhelming employment
and other social
opportunities. Population growth also makes
solutions more
difficult to achieve. Take, for example, the transition to
sustainable energy systems. It has been estimated that the Swiss
population would have to drop to one-sixth of
its present level
for the country to base itself on its own
renewable energy
resources and maintain its present living
standards."
FOOD PRODUCTION (p. 74)
"In terms of food production, ALL
forms of farming have adverse
impacts.
For example, the extension of arable production must be
at the expense of woodland and wetlands,
while its intensification
must lead to a deteriorating quantity and
quality of soil systems,
even if we can avoid the problems
associated with synthesized
fertilizers and biocides. According to Mike Jacobs, author of The
Green Economy, organic farming actually
improves the environment;
but the noted Japanese farmer Masanobu
Fukuoka has shown that it
still depends upon external inputs and does
not close the cycle of
nutrients.
More paddy cultivation will increase methane build-up
in the atmosphere. Increased food
production via irrigation will
worsen the already serious problems of
salinization and water
logging."
POLLUTION (p. 75)
"The potential of pollution control
technology is also
exaggerated. It only shifts pollutants from one form,
place, or
time to another. The only way to reduce the more serious
pollutants is to generate less of them in
the first place. Many
pollutants are too dissipated to catch and
contain -- for example,
carbon dioxide, fertilizer run-off, and
methane from cattle and
paddy cultivation. In the case of pollutants amenable to capture
and treatment, there is still the cost of
making and using the
necessary gadgetry. The cost of installing full-scale tertiary
treatment of the existing `throughput' of
sewage is likely to be
astronomical.
"Already, great damage is being done
producing the raw material
for pollution abatement techniques, not
least limestone mining and
the production of lime for desulfurization. Similarly, the
manufacture of equipment like catalytic
converters causes resource
depletion and more pollution. At the end of the pipe, there are
still waste residues, often highly toxic.
"Perhaps recycling is the most popular
technological fix. People
get enthusiastic about recycled paper, as
if paper fibre no longer
wore out and trees no longer will have to
be cut down.
Technological euphoria is driving out more
sober thought based on
physical actualities. Entropy dictates that
material usage must
lead to some material dissipation. The phosphate put into washing
powders and the zinc used in manufactured
items end up in a myriad
of locations, for example.
"Of course, much can be recycled. It is scandalous that globally
some 66% of all aluminum and 75% of iron
and paper is simply
dumped on the environment after use. Yet, we must not ignore the
serious pollution around some recycling
plants. Recycling does
not challenge the processes by which human
society creates rising
piles of waste. Indeed, to some extent, it
legitimizes
profligacy."
OVERDEVELOPMENT (p. 77)
"Today's problems, in short, are
symptoms of not only
MALdevelopment in specific areas but also
of general
OVERdevelopment. The problem is growth per se, not just
misdirected growth. Humanity has reached the point where further
attempts to extend and intensify human
production systems, no
matter how well regulated or
technologically sophisticated, must
undermine
the long-term capacity of environment systems to
sustain life.
"At present, it takes about two
hectares to cater for the typical
diet in a rich country. To furnish this pattern of consumption
for the six billion who soon will be alive
would require 12
billion hectares -- roughly eight times the
amount of available
cropland, most of which is showing signs of
serious stress.
Popular criticism of European Union `food
mountains' and `wine
lakes' misses the key point: they are only
temporary surpluses
since the production system is eroding its
own resource base.
"Of course, food is only one human
need and many other
environmental conditions and resources are
required for
sustainable living. The state of the Earth's tree cover is
probably the most critical indicator.
Before the birth of
agriculture, forests clothed over six
billion hectares. Since
then, the Earth has been scalped of
two-thirds of its original
forest, half the loss occurring between
1950 and 1990. China was
once 75% forested; now most has been
destroyed, with 20 million
hectares deforested in the 30 years after
the Communist revolution
in 1949.
In just 100 years, Ethiopia's forest have declined from
40% to only 3% of the land."
AIR POLLUTION (p. 78)
"Air pollution is killing forests and
lakes around the world.
Across 15 European countries, 27,000 square
miles are showing
signs of `forest death.' In southern Norway, all lakes in a
13,000 square kilometer area are devoid of
fish. Chongging in
China is perhaps the acid rain capital of the world, the rain
there sometimes being so acidic it can
dissolve steel.
"Human activity is adding chemicals to
the environment whose
systems have not been `equipped' by
evolution to absorb their
impact.
Some 2.5 million tons of synthetic pesticides, for
example, are sprayed annually, mainly in
the rich countries,
though `Third World' use is
rising dramatically. In the USA, such
chemicals area partly responsible for some
20% of the list of
endangered species.
"Another symptom of overdevelopment is
the covering over of land
with roads, buildings, and other
infrastructure. It sterilizes
the environment buried beneath whilst
creating problems like
excessive water run-off. In the USA, some 526,000 hectares of
countryside, mainly good farmland, is paved
over every year."
THE POOR ALSO POLLUTE (p. 79)
"...It is indeed true that a small percentage
of the world's
population consumes a grossly
disproportionate share of the
world's resources; but this fact is being
used in ways that
distort the whole picture. Politicians from
the `Third World', for
example, angrily attack plans to conserve `their'
forests on the
grounds that they should not sacrifice the
sovereign right to
exploit such resources simply to supply
carbon sinks so that
western consumers can continue to drive
their carbon-emitting
cars.
Yet the political and business elites in the Third World
live life-styles little different from
those they denounce. They
surround themselves with massive military
forces, while
irresponsibly promising affluence to every
household in their
countries.
"Many of these leaders have followed
the path of the already
industrialized countries, with the
construction of brand new
capital cities, big airports, nuclear power
plants and the other
symbols of `modernization.' From the introduction of
Canadian-style wheat farming in Tanzania to Indonesia's
transmigration programme, there are plenty
of examples of
ecologically disastrous projects backed by Third World
governments, often with considerable
popular support. The
destruction of local wildlife is perhaps
even more
enthusiastically supported. In Thailand, for example, tigers are
threatened with extinction simply so that
East Asian consumers can
enjoy the delights of tiger penis soup.
"More generally, the environmental
impact of the world's poor,
compared to that of the rich, tends to be
underestimated in the
sustainable development literature. A lot of the destruction in
the `Third World' takes place
outside the formal economy as with
tree felling for fuel and new farm
land. Such activities tend not
to be as accurately recorded as, say,
petrol and electricity
consumption in the industrialized parts of
the world. More
important, however, is that even a small
increase in per capita
consumption -- especially with fossil fuels
-- in a populous
country like China will have a disproportionately large impact,
given the size of its population. The sustainable development
lobby seldom faces the brutal truth that
the `developing'
countries will never be developed in any
conventional meaning of
the word if global sustainability is to be
attained. ...
"This `think shrink' orientation is
not an attempt to `pull up the
ladder' so that the poor cannot join the
rich. In fact,
abandonment of the goal of global affluence
offers the best hope
for those being crushed under the wheels of
industrial expansion.
Across the `Third World,' outside
the citadels of western-style
luxury, the people with secure food
supplies, clean water, and
social stability tend to be those living in
regions not yet
harnessed to the treadmill of
development. Indeed, many
`backward' societies offer sophisticated
and practicable models of
sustainable living."
LORDS OF CREATION? (p. 81)
"Supporters of sustainable development
show a collective
reluctance to explore the deep implications
of what might be
called a Sustainable Earth Society whose
members include more than
the human race. Many reject, for example, concepts like
carrying
capacity (it implies limits on human
numbers), or values like the
inalienable right of other species to
flourish (it implies limits
on human activities). Ecological systems are still treated as
just one issue amongst many, not the
preconditions for the lasting
satisfaction of all other goals."
CONCLUSION (p. 82)
"So far, most supporters of
sustainable development have not made
the transition to an Earth-centered value
system. There is no
deep sense of caution and modesty about the
power of human
intellect and technological prowess. There
is no recognition of
the intrinsic rights of other species nor
of the wisdom contained
in the millennia of evolution."
***
BIO: Sandy Irvine is the Environmental
Curriculum Development
Officer at the University of Northumbria. He is the co-author of
A Green Manifesto (London: Optima, 1988)
and subsequently wrote
Beyond Green Consumerism (London: Friends
of the Earth, 1989) He
co-edits a quarterly ecological and
political magazine, Real
World, and is an associate editor of The
Ecologist.
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